What can be thought of as the modern version of cruise control in vehicles was invented in the late 1940s. By the 1960s, it was a standard feature on many automobiles in the US. There didn’t seem to be a lot of people worried about losing their truck driving jobs during this time of automotive advances, but worries are currently growing about job security in the trucking industry due to developments in autonomous tractor trailers. Most of these fears seem premature, which may cause some individuals to skip a career in trucking just as it becomes more driver-friendly.
Any technology that can make driving a tractor trailer safer while simultaneously allowing more cargo to move is sorely needed. In a story published by NPR in January, just one truck was available for every 12 loads needing to be shipped at the start of 2018. The American Trucking Associations (ATA) began tracking a shortage of drivers that started 15 years ago, with projections indicating the problem is only going to get worse. In its most recent analysis, the ATA predicts the trucking industry will need to hire almost 900,000 drivers in the next decade, or an average of 90,000 per year.
One semi-autonomous solution to an expanding driver shortage came from Peloton, an autonomous truck maker that plans to group rigs in a chain with a lead truck driven by a human. The basic idea is to allow a driver to use his judgment and experience to gauge road conditions and determine how to navigate complex situations – such as driving around debris from an accident or descending an icy mountain pass – while guiding a series of semi-autonomous trucks following closely behind.
More recent ideas for fully-autonomous trucking models completely remove a human from interstate travel, but still require them for local deliveries. One example of this technology being deployed now is from Embark, which is using autonomous trucks to deliver refrigerators from Texas to California. A human drives the truck from the warehouse to the interstate where the trailer is disconnected and then reconnected to an autonomous truck. The truck is then switched to an autonomous mode and travels the interstate system to California, where a human truck driver connects the trailer to a different truck and finishes the delivery.
Human drivers will still be needed in cities and adverse driving situations for the foreseeable future. Directing a large truck through crowded roads is an area where autonomous technology still isn’t quite as safe as a human’s judgment. This ensures many drivers will be able to keep local routes close to family and friends. Echoing this sentiment, Gary Shapiro, president and CEO of the Consumer Technology Association has argued that autonomous trucks “…will be a generational shift, not an abrupt displacement of drivers, and in fact, will likely improve conditions for them.” Truck driving jobs aren’t going away any time soon, but they will change with technological advances.
One area that will definitely change is the level of safety within the trucking industry. If a driver is permitted to switch a truck to an autonomous mode on long stretches of road, it will help reduce driver fatigue, which should result in fewer injuries and fatalities. This is an important goal to have since driving a truck is among the top 10 deadliest jobs in the country.
Looking forward, drivers may transition to being more like technicians who ride in trucks ready to make repairs when needed or possibly take the controls if something catastrophic goes wrong. Rather than thinking of truckers as an endangered species, it may be more accurate to look at them more like commercial pilots. The autopilot capabilities of a large jet can control most phases of a flight, including landing, but it hasn’t made the pilot obsolete.
